Crystal Ball-ing the 1st Test

The first Test of the summer commences in two weeks time, and while most of the remaining pieces in the team will again have their names read out when it comes time to announce the squad, the places left by the retirements over the winter are still anything but nailed down.
The cancellation of the Bangladesh tour meant that the opportunities for many fringe players may have gone, perhaps forever. With the career of Michael Clarke and Chris Rogers over, and the injury to Dave Warner's thumb ruling him out, at least three batsmen would have had the chance to play two Tests and perhaps secure their positions for the immediate future. That didn't happen, and so all of those plans have been thrown out the window.

So what does it mean for the first Tests of the Australian summer? Many players pick themselves. New skipper Steve Smith is still probably the only person in the top six who is absolutely assured of his spot. Vice captain Warner is also, but only if he has recovered from the broken thumb he sustained in England. Despite the fact that Adam Voges was named as interim vice captain for the Bangladesh trip, and appears to be favoured by the selectors to add some experience to what will be a fresh faced top six, it is no foregone conclusion that he will be at the 'Gabba. Peter Nevill will retain the keepers spot, while Mitch Johnson, Mitch Starc and Nathan Lyon will be the nucleus of the bowling attack. After that, well... it's take your pick.

My own opinion is that this summer is the right time to get new, young faces into the team, and not just stick with the players who have been around on the fringes for the past few years. Tests against New Zealand and then the West Indies provide the best basis for our young players to come in and show what they are capable of. The Black Caps may beat us no matter who we put on the park, while surely the Windies will be only the very slightest of threats. Better for our young players to get a taste now, before the return of South Africa, India and England over the next 2-3 summers.
For this reason, I would steer clear of going back to players such as Adam Voges, Shaun Marsh and the like. Both had their chance to nail in their spots over the winter, and neither was able to do so with any real authority. Without under-estimating the ability in the bowling attacks of both New Zealand and West Indies, the opportunity should be given to the next generation.
The three names that would be at the top of the list would be Cameron Bancroft, Usman Khawaja and Joe Burns. Bancroft appears to have been earmarked for the opening position left vacant by Chris Rogers, though there will be some pressure to see Shaun Marsh given (another) extended shot at the spot. Bancroft appears to tick most of the boxes. He is young, he has good recent form, a solid defense and can play off the front and back foot. Being a right hander would also be a benefit in an opening combination with Warner. The desire to find another long term combination at the top of the order should see him get the opportunity this summer. Khawaja has had time to mature since his last stint in the national side. Only injury probably stopped him from breaking back into the team 12 months ago, and his form in all forms has been top notch. He was somewhat unfortunate not to be given a shot in the ODI side in England, and the feeling remains that his fielding is costing him in those selection talks. With Steve Smith open to remaining at number four in the batting line-up, Khawaja would be the perfect fit to come in at number three - though again, the Shaun Marsh supporters will be pushing for him to be given the spot. Burns was almost wrongfully left out of the winter tours, after he had shown enough in his two Tests against India that he was comfortable at that level. His selfless batting in Sydney to set up a run chase for India should not have been rewarded with being left out of the West Indies tour. Thankfully, he has not let it affect his play. Though he spends most of his time at the to of the order for Queensland, his strokeplay appears well suited to number five, and would be where I would play him in the interim.
Of course, the selectors will not go down this road. There is little doubt both Shaun Marsh and Adam Voges will be chosen for the 1st Test, with Voges at number five and Marsh likely to be at first drop, leaving only Bancroft of these three to find his way into the team. I really believe this will be a lost opportunity. We need to rebuild this team's batting line up, and giving the younger players their chance for an entire summer is surely preferable to sticking with older players who have scored almost at will in domestic cricket, but have not transferred that to the Test arena.

Mitch Marsh will no doubt be retained at number six, and this summer will be of the utmost importance to him. To be at number six he has to score runs. He has to average at least 40 to be secure in that place in the batting line-up (yes, yes, Shane Watson didn't... I know... does anyone believe any cricketer will ever get the same beneficial selection bias again like Watto did?!). So as well as bowling his overs and getting nagging wickets, it is with the bat he must succeed, or he will have heat on his tail. Glenn Maxwell would do anything for a chance of the all rounders spot at number six, and given another six months, someone like Victoria's Marcus Stoinis may well be banging the door down for a chance.

With Johnson, Starc and Lyon certainties in the team, the final spot will most likely come from Josh Hazelwood and Peter Siddle, and both are likely to be in the XII for Brisbane. Hazelwood's figures in England were outstanding, even if at times he didn't appear on song, while Siddle's effort in the final Test was impossible to critique. You can toss a coin as to whom will play, but given the likely decision to stick with experience over youth in the top order, I think the same will occur in the bowling as well.

My team for Brisbane would be:
Dave Warner, Cameron Bancroft, Usman Khawaja, Steve Smith (c), Joe Burns, Mitch Marsh, Peter Nevill, Mitchell Johnson, Mitch Starc, Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazelwood, Peter Siddle (12th).

The selectors team for Brisbane is likely to be:
Dave Warner, Cameron Bancroft, Shaun Marsh, Steve Smith (c), Adam Voges, Mitch Marsh, Peter Nevill, Mitchell Johnson, Peter Siddle, Mitch Starc, Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazelwood (12th).