When Do You Turn Off the Porch Light?

At what stage of the footy season do you, as a supporter, start to panic? When do you get that uncomfortable feeling in the pit of your stomach that your team isn’t up to it? That despite all of the bravado and positive words coming out of the press conferences of your team, you know that for you the long cold winter of disappointment has begun? If like me you are a Collingwood supporter, that tends to happen pretty early on, but in 2018 there are already a number of teams in a lot worse position, and their plans for the season ahead are looking mightily worrisome given we have only just clicked over into April. Perhaps there is still some daylight out there for them, but some supporters are almost at the stage of turning off the porch light and closing the front door on their respective footy seasons. 

Given the even competition that the AFL has again thrust upon us, there is no room for bad losses, even if it is against the better teams. Eighteen months ago the Western Bulldogs were on top of the world, Premiers of the game and with a bright few years ahead of the club. After two games of this season’s competition, their supporters must be wondering what has happened. They capitulated to GWS in round one in Canberra, and last weekend did so again at home against West Coast. They weren’t just losses, they were floggings. This week they come up against an Essendon side that will be hell bent on finding retribution for their own collapse against Fremantle. Recovering from this start will take every ounce of mongrel the Dogs have in them. 

Carlton fought hard against Richmond in round one, but their defeat to Gold Coast in round two leaves them again on the precipice. No one except Magpies and Blues supporters now cares too much about their match this Friday, but with both teams 0-2, the loser will be under enormous scrutiny in the eyes of the media and their fans. 

St Kilda has been mentioned in top eight discussions, but they were abysmal against North on ‘Bad Friday’ and will need to regroup quickly if they are to reignite their season. 

For all these teams, a successful season is quickly sinking into the mire, and only an immediate turnaround can stop that. Sydney may have made the finals last season after a 0-6 start, but none of these sides have the talent that the Sydney team had. 

The two teams that most had pencilled in for finals in the NRL in 2018 were the Eels and the Raiders. The Eels were being spoken of in some circles as premiership material. After four rounds, one wonders now how either team can find a way to win a game. Injuries haven’t helped either club, but poor defence and on field decisions have hurt them more. 

After 20 minutes of their first round match against the Panthers, the Eels led 14-0. They have since conceded 122 points while scoring only 24 in losing all four games. Meanwhile, the Raiders lost their first three matches after leading into the final five minutes in each of them, only to fall at the final hurdle as their opponents came over the top of them. Again it is early in the season, but turning around the defensive woes of both of these clubs to become finals contenders again would be a massive achievement. 

The Bulldogs haven’t been much better. The player and coach reshuffle is no doubt a work in progress, but one wonders if the coach wants the players his club bought. The Broncos and Storm appear vulnerable now that both have lost their halfbacks to other clubs, whereas those clubs seem to be travelling along nicely as a result. 

In some instances it is too early to tell whether or not the dream of a finals place or even a premiership is already in ruins. For those clubs mentioned above however, that nauseous feeling will be evident for their supporters as they head to their games this weekend, knowing that another loss will add further nails to their coffin in 2018.

NRL Finals Preview Week One

Apparently the NRL finals kick off tonight, which surely is just a four week long give-us-your-money festival before Melbourne is confirmed as the Premiers. Can anyone seriously see them not winning? Or given the season as it has progressed, found another team that deserves to be named as Premiers in front of them? Anyway, thoughts as below.

ROOSTERS vs BRONCOS

In recent weeks the Roosters have gotten themselves out of predicaments that could have been costly. They scored in the 77th minute to get over the Titans last week, they got a leg over from the referee to kick a penalty goal in the 80th minute to defeat the Sharks the week before, and scored in the 72nd minute to get past the Tigers. They pushed the Storm all the way in a 16-13 loss but were belted by the Sea Eagles. You can say that they have been persistent rather than spectacular. The Broncos, apart from their two losses against the Eels, have been tough. They don’t get the home final here, but that hasn’t always been a concern for them. Do you regard the Roosters form as shaky or gritty? Have the Broncos wins been against opponents on the downward spiral? The form on both sides is unreliable. Go with the gut. 

Broncos by 6

STORM vs EELS

The Storm has been relentless this season after last season’s disappointment at the final bell on Grand Final Day. Billy Slater’s return has improved the team, along with Cameron Munster’s escalating talent. The forward pack keeps doing its job. It appears a foregone conclusion they will be victorious again. The Eels have had a terrific season, and Brad Arthur has done a magnificent job in keeping the team focused and in bringing on the individuals in the team. If their defense can have an on day then their attack is as good as any team. If the barn doors are swinging it could be a blow out. The best case for the Eels is having no injuries at the end of the match. 

Storm by 16.

SEA EAGLES vs PANTHERS

Their match up last week at Brookvale is not a great form guide. I mean, how often have the Panthers travelled down from the mountains to beat Manly at home? And who can possibly work out these two teams form lines anyway? Manly has lost to Canterbury and the Tigers but flogged the Roosters. Penrith lost to the Dragons and Manly in the final two rounds but were solid before that. Does either side have an advantage at the SFS? Does Trent Barrett have the cattle to force a win? Are the Panthers in the right head space to go forward? Who the hell knows. Unless finals footy throws up an upset both teams should have been vanquished by next weekend anyway. This match gives the winner a slim chance of moving past next week. 

Sea Eagles by 4.

SHARKS vs COWBOYS

From the moment Jonathan Thurston was injured it has been an uphill battle for the Cowboys. It’s the same old story in general, no Thurston no Cowboys. They haven’t looked the same dominant force since, and scraped their way into the finals by the skin of their teeth. Coming up against the reigning premiers in this match, is there anyone who really believes they can get up and win? The Sharks have had a tough time in their premiership defense, but all is not lost yet. Their experience from last year will give them belief that they can still be there on Grand Final Day. Assuming they win this match, whoever their opponent is next weekend will not be imbued with overconfidence. The Sharks are the only real danger of going deep in the final campaign from the bottom four of the finalists. 

Sharks by 18.

NRL Round 3: Do the Tigers Need to Play Against Robbie Farah Every Week?

It's round three of the NRL, and already there has been a slight shift away from the initial period of excitement once the new season starts. We get back into the routine of "really, another bloody Broncos/Storm/Titans/Manly game, is there anything else on?" Can I really be bothered staying up on a Thursday night to watch a match I don't really care about? Rugby League for me is still a Saturday and Sunday afternoon game. I can survive a Friday night match, but that takes away from family time. Sometimes a good thing, sometimes not. Anyway, I digress...

1. I only glanced at the Thursday night match between Storm and Broncos, and for those reasons stated above. I don't care about either team, and it's too late on Thursday to watch. I'm sure it was a reasonable game, but all I cared about was finally getting a tip right (Storm winning 14-12 did that).
2. Once again the Warriors look as though they are going to disappoint their fans, while the Bulldogs managed to find enough this week to get a victory. The 24-12 win would have pleased their fans without solving any of the issues raised in their first two matches. Their attack was better without being perfectly well run. Their defense though was solid again. The Warriors meanwhile have had three matches in New Zealand for one very scrappy and undeserved victory over last season's wooden spooners. With their roster, they appear in all sorts of trouble.
3. The Eels played their third away match in succession, on only a five day layover, and without their playmaker. Compared to most others, it is a very ordinary draw. The inevitable loss to the Titans on the back of that will be put down to the Norman factor, but the draw is somewhat unfair. The Titans have more injury worries, but the loss of Jarryd Hayne from last week appears to have improved their attack nicely. One wonders if his unsettling influence being missing helped their endeavours. The 26-14 victory tends to prove it does.
4. If nothing else, at least Newcastle are proving competitive this season. They were perhaps a little unlucky to lose to Souths 24-18 at home, and Souths were fortunate not to have two players sent for the game let alone only one going for ten minutes. The Knights are on a learning curve though, looking to fight their way back to respectability. Souths seem to be just fighting, but are now 2-1 having won two away games in succession.
5. I didn't see either of the later games, only smatterings while being out and about and when the cricket went to a break. The Roosters outlasted the Panthers up the mountain, which is no mean feat, but surely the three tries to one gives a better indication of the difference. No matter, the Roosters are 3-0 and the Panthers (title favourites?) are 1-2.
6. I know the Cowboys had some injuries and suspensions, but really did anyone expect Manly to go on and win this 30-8 at Townsville? No team will go through this season unscathed by injury, and how you perform without your best 17 available will be the difference between making finals or not. The Cowboys will know they have to do better. The Sea Eagles have at least shown they won't be the soft underbelly they appeared to have last season. It opens up the field substantially with a result like this so early in the season.
7. Ooooohhhh Tigers fans. It looks like the whole season is very close to unravelling. After what appeared to be a good opening to their game with the Raiders down in Canberra (despite both teams constant dropping of the ball) the Tigers suddenly forgot how to play, and the Raiders stopped dropping the ball. The 46-6 thrashing will have revived local fans after last week's 'brain fade', but where do the Tigers go from here? Do they have nothing to motivate them if they aren't playing against Robbie Farah? They look shot.
8. Seriously, what is going on with the Shire partners? The Sharks couldn't beat Brisbane at home, then pumped the Raiders away. The Dragons surprised against the Panthers, then failed to consolidate against the Eels at home. The derby is always a game played with feeling, but for the most part the Sharks didn't have any. The 16-10 victory for the Dragons feels like it is just a band-aid before the inevitable collapse, but the Sharks at 1-2 need to find something quick or they will be fishing in rougher waters.

NRL Week 2: Are the Dogs Done Already?

Week 2, and already in trying to do my tips, I couldn't find a certain winner. All eight games seemed to be evenly matched, whether it was a weaker team getting the home ground advantage or just two teams on an even keel. Or, perhaps more likely, I just haven't got a clue when it comes to rugby league after 40+ years of watching and trying.

1. It was a game of dropped ball and strange options, but the Roosters vs Bulldogs game was a beauty, entertaining right to the very end. Still couldn't draw a crowd, which one can only assume will be a continuing problem with the Thursday night game, whoever is playing. The Bulldogs like last week had no passing or kicking game. The spine of hooker/halves/fullback is just not up to it. They are in real trouble. Josh Jackson was forced into the centres because of an injury and was a real liability. It didn't help the Bulldogs cause. The Roosters will be pleased with their victory over a team that should be a hell of a lot better than they are performing. They again tried to surrender a huge lead in the second half but again managed to hold on. the 28-24 win makes them 2-0, a much better feeling than the Dogs 0-2.
2. I didn't see the Warriors vs Storm game, played in atrocious conditions, though by tipping the Warriors I guess I put too much weight on their back. The 26-10 victory highlighted once again the excellent defense of the Storm team, and leaving opposition teams the job of having to try and find a way to penetrate it if they are to compete with them this season.
3. While everyone sprouted praise and amazement at yet another golden point game between the Broncos and the Cowboys, I was more interested in the refereeing decisions that allowed it to come to pass. For awhile it looked as though the Cowboys were copping revenge for last week with a penalty count at 5-1 and the leniency tending towards the Broncos. Then it looked as though it was time to even up that count (even wife Helen said this exact thing - "so do they just try and even up the penalties at the end of the match?"). The blatant forward pass that led to a Broncos try overshadowed two others I saw that were not even mentioned, simply because no try came from them. And if JT had kicked that field goal at the end of regular time with the two man screen set up to block the Broncos chasers, would it have been disallowed? In the end, I enjoyed the game but have trouble barracking for either team. A draw would have sufficed for me.
4. It had been almost 12 months since their last win, but after their impressive showing against the Warriors last week... surely this was the week for the Newcastle Knights. Well, it was, and it was a happy team, support crew and supporters who cheered them on at Newcastle to their 34-26 victory. Still, the Titans were cruelled by injury, spending almost half the game with only one man on the interchange bench and an inability to hold onto the ball at crucial times. Still, given the increasing drama around him, will the injury to Jarryd Hayne actually be a blessing?
5. After three tries in the first 12 minutes to lead 12-0, could anyone have predicted the collapse of the Sea Eagles? Losing to the Rabbitohs 38-18 after that start was just... awful. Truly terrible. And now two losses at home to start the season, where on earth do they go from here? An 8-3 penalty count against them again, and a 56-44 possession count against them. Souths made a remarkable turnaround from last week's thrashing which was almost as remarkable as how bad manly was.
6. For the first half of their match against Cronulla, the Raiders again seemed to be on the wrong side of every penalty and decision. This was evened up quickly in about three minutes before half time, but by then the damage appeared to be done. Cronulla just run roughshod over the Raiders in the second half as the game fell into their hands. Metres run, line breaks and offloads were all decisively in the Sharks favour. Again, after last week, who saw this coming?
7. It's good to know what happened to the Tigers and the Panthers last week. Obviously the Panthers just thought they had to turn up to beat the Dragons, and the Tigers really were just motivated to beat Robbie Farah. So, this week the Panthers knew they had to play, and the Tigers had no motivation whatsoever. What a rubbish effort from them. If Brooks and Moses are trying to sell themselves around for next season they are going the wrong way about it. The good news for the Tigers is that at least Bryce Cartwright looks to be out for a while with injury.
8. With Russell Packer doing a Martin Bella (look up 1994 Grand Final for reference), meaning the Dragons were on the back foot from the first minute, it seemed an unfair advantage by the end of the game. However, an enthusiastic young Eels team took their chances and ended up dominating in a 34-16 victory that halts the progress made by the Dragons in the first round, Somehow the Eels get a third away game in succession next week as well as a five day turnaround. That seems a tad unfair.

The end result for me? A great tipping card of 1 from 8. But more importantly, it showed that the results last week that may have appeared a surprise at the time (ie Tigers, Panthers) were rectified this week. This season's likely finalists have already showed their hand.

NRL Round 1: WTF Did Inglis Stay on the Field?!?

What did we learn from Week 1 of the NRL? It's far too early to make generalisations about teams chance for the entire year... well, no, not for me it isn't. In fact it is quite easy. If it wasn't I wouldn't be doing it would I?

1. It's going to be a long year for the Sharks. It is tough to face up without stars from last year, but it was enough to show they can't win again this season. Perhaps it won't be a disaster, but if they finish in the top eight this season it will only be because others teams have not improved when they should have. Broncos won't have completely shaken their critics, but their defensive effort on Thursday will allow their supporters to breathe a sigh of relief. If they can make Lang Park their fortress, then away victories like the 26-18 win over the Sharks will get them to the pointy end of the season.
2. The Bulldogs passing and kicking was deplorable in their loss to Melbourne. Yes it was wet but they were bad before the rain hit. If they weren't chasing Keiran Foran next year before Friday you can bet they are now. They've backed the wrong horse in Mbye and should be waving him bye bye. How they must wish they'd kept Hodkinson. Des Hasler also looks on thin ice, especially with the roster the Dogs actually have. If they cannot go deep into September this season - or even REACH September - then he is gone, maybe before then. The Storm got all the ball and all the penalties in the first 15 minutes against Canterbury and built a 12-0 lead. When the possession changed to the other direction, their defense won them the match from that point. They were gifted the lead built on that possession, but you can't argue with their wall that allows them to win 12-6. And they did it with 16 men. Jesse Bromwich is a huge loss for their season though.
3. Greg Inglis. How the hell did he injure his ACL? Why did he then stay on until half time? And why did he come back AFTER half time? Michael Maguire and his medical staff have completely fucked up there, and now the Rabbits season is in tatters. One man doesn't make a team? Maybe not, but Inglis sure is a huge part of the Souths makeup. Replacing his presence will be the problem. The fact that he stayed on gave the Tigers an enormous boost, as they plundered his side of the field knowing he was incapable of stopping their rampant attack. To a zero-year player but a 40+ year watcher of the game, it seemed a ludicrous decision. How good were the Tigers victory in the wash up? It was the start they needed. Their big four in Tedesco, Moses, Brooks and Woods did everything they had to, and their support players were able to shine in their 34-18 victory given the impotence of the Rabbits game after the Inglis injury. The Robbie Farah influence probably helped a little too. How they follow it up next week against the Panthers will be telling for both clubs.
4. The Dragons obliterated a woeful Panthers team, who had been spoken of as one of the Premiership favourites. What do you make of it? Are they both just aberrations? Have the Draongs improved that much since moving on Benji and Rein? Have the Panthers opponents finally realised Cartwright is a pretender? I don't know. Of all matches this weekend, this result had to be the most unlikely.
5. The first "Are the refs on the take?" moment for the season is awarded to the Cowboys vs Raiders match. Seriously. The Cowboys had a 59/41 possession advantage for the match. They had the penalty count 11-4 in their favour. The Raiders had a man sent to the bin for 10 minutes. The Cowboys only had to make 247 tackles compared to the Raiders 358. And yet despite this, it was 16-16 at full time, and only more fortune for the Cowboys got them the victory in golden point (and why is this rule still in the game?). Does all of this deplete the nature of the Cowboys win, or does it make the Raiders appear like the Real Deal in 2017? Watching the game, I didn't get the feeling that the Raiders were so much more undisciplined that they deserved those kind of stats against them.
6. Did anyone care that the Roosters played the Titans? Did anyone watch? I didn't.
7. Somehow the Warriors managed to sneak away with a victory that they didn't necessarily deserve. Once again, they have the best players New Zealand can offer and once again they just seem to lack the cohesion to make them a team to fear. Newcastle were good, and maybe won't play better than that all season, but if the Warriors cannot beat last season's wooden spooners without any sense of authority then they are yet another seemingly overrated team in 2017.
8. Parramatta and Manly both showed determination and some promise for the season ahead without standing out as contenders. The Eels had the mountain share of possession especially in the second half, and yet Manly's goal line defense was superb, holding out wave after wave of attack. Manly's attack is still a work in progress, while the Eels 2017 defense is yet to be fully tested given Manly's few chances at their opponents tryline.

Stand Outs in Week 1:  Storm, Tigers, Dragons.

Rubbish in Week 1: Souths, Penrith, Ben Cummins.

Retro Round Brings Commentary Back to the Fore

The real pleasure of watching the league this afternoon was not the game itself. To be honest, with the way both of these teams have performed this season, I would under most circumstances not even have bothered to check out the Manly vs Newcastle match at all, and most certainly if I had had to watch it with the usual commentary team on Channel 9 I would have given it the flick.

But it's Retro Round, and Fox Sports, who are this season allowed to show every game live, have brought back some old friends from the 1980's and 1990's. Graeme Hughes was the caller of the game, with Steve Roach his expert in the box and Wayne Pearce of the sideline. And it was great. The commentary was not trying to create an atmosphere, it was informative and accurate. There was no hysterics, and there was no Phil Gould pontificating over every ruling or pissing in the pocket of every play that might be touched by a genius ten years in the future. It was entertaining just because it was old school and not trying to be something that it wasn't.

Congratulations to Fox Sports, you made the league watchable again, even when the game was a blow out. Now, get Graeme Hughes back on a full time basis please!

Jimmy Smith showing off his wardrobe

CEO of the NRL? I'm Applying!

Bill Peters as the next CEO of the NRL? Can I do a better job than Dave Smith? Homer Simpson could do a better job than Dave Smith.

Within three years, I promise the following:

1. Get rid of Phil Gould from all public profile in the game. He is either negative, unhelpful or whining about every decision in the game, or he's pissing in the pockets of people endlessly. It's not that we disagree all the time, but we don't need to hear it from him every single time, carrying on about it without anything actually being done about it. If he wants to help, he can go on a sub-committee i will set up far far away from the media and the commentary box, and we'll do our best to help him.
2. Lower entry prices to all games. If TV is paying a fortune for the rights (though that's not in stone yet), then lets get some fans back in the grounds watching the game there to help out. $12.50 adults, $5 kids, $40 maximum for families. Let's see full stadiums instead of embarrassing crowds at less than 50% capacity.
3. Play at times that are family friendly AND
4. Start the games on time! Friday nights at 8pm might be great for working class men and women and teenagers, but young kids miss out on the action of what is usually the number one game of the week. Start the game at 7pm, it's over before 9pm, and everyone is happy. Sunday arvo at 4pm isn't much better - adults have to go to work the next day, kids to school. 3pm start, and over by 5pm. Let's show the game when everyone can enjoy them without being put out.
5. State of Origin starts at 7pm. Fuck you Channel Nine, we aren't starting these games at 8.23pm anymore.
6. Three games at each venue. In the good old days our ticket let us watch Third Grade/Under 23's, then Reserve Grade, then First Grade. Let's get back to providing value for money for those that want to see it. Under 20's, then NSW or Qld Cup, then NRL fixture.
7. No Video Replay, use Captains Challenge. No, we aren't having the KFC Reminder every three minutes anymore, and no we aren't spending millions on the stupid bloody Bunker. Each team has two Captains Challenges, the ref on the field watches the footage himself on the sideline, and that's it.
8. Draft system like AFL. This has to happen. The AFL is in the news now because it's Trade Period, and then comes the Draft Period. It allows some evenness to come to the playing ranks, and gives the lower sides a chance to improve. Those who are against this idea are ignorant or the benefits or support teams like Eastern Suburbs.
9. Redesign the salary cap to benefit long-term players, raising junior through ranks etc. Has to happen as well. If you have a player who has been at your Club his whole career, you should be about to have a discount on your cap. If all you do is rotate players every couple of years, you should be penalised.
10. The Dragons will be told to shove their deal with other grounds and return to having half of their home games played at Wollongong and the other half at Kogarah. The Wests Tigers will also be forced to play half their games at Campbelltown and the other half at Leichhardt Oval. The multi-grounds policy is ridiculous.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh. I feel soooo much better for venting.

Sport's Appeal Lacking Lustre

Sport hasn't been doing it for me lately, I can guarantee you that. If it's not bad enough that our cricketers have been completely blown away by a team the so-called experts believed were in tatters, the winter side of things isn't helping much either.

The AFL has come tumbling down again, leaving me with another finals series which means I won't have to worry about my blood pressure, but without a vested interest. Collingwood again managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, leading by 9 points in the final term against Sydney at the S.C.G, but unable to convert the chances they had to hold onto the game. It was their seventh loss in eight games, but in all of those they have been competitive against better opposition. It is obvious that they a lot of good kids coming through, but they just aren't at the level of these higher teams at the moment. Letting that game go on Friday night was a disappointment though. The Magpies had to win to make the finals, and their chances are now gone. So too are the likely finals aspirations of the Giants, who stayed with Port Adelaide until midway through the fourth quarter before being finished off. GWS still have an outside chance of making the playoffs, but will have to win all three of their finals games against Sydney, Carlton and Melbourne to do it, and hope other results go their way. After next weekend it probably won't matter.

The NRL hasn't mattered for some time. The Dragons loss to Brisbane has them walking a finals tightrope and possibly allowing Manly a lifeline, while the Eels played another 40 minute game on Saturday, leading the Roosters 18-4 at half time only to lose 28-18. The Eels lurch from disaster to disaster off the field, with Will Hopoate now taking them to court over 3rd party payments. Unless this is all solved ridiculously quickly, any progress the Eels have made in the past season and a half will be for nothing. Somehow the club has to deal with the ridiculous deals the previous board negotiated over the past three seasons, and clear out any misconception about their recruiting and payments. It should be done league-wide, but the Eels need to rid their club of the descending fog this is creating.

Once again, entirely predictably, the Wallabies failed to lift the Bledisloe Cup after falling to defeat at Eden Park (once again). The All Blacks rejoice for retaining the trophy for the 13th consecutive year - but really, what chance do you have to try and take it off the holders? With only two games being played each season, you only have to win your game at home to be assured of retaining the Cup. In the good old days you had the chance of a three Test series - all in your own country - to win the Bledisloe Cup. Now it is so heavily in favour of the holders that it becomes a task too far. Of course, this rule will probably only be changed if Australia ever happen to win the Cup back.

Two Halves Don't Make A Whole in NRL

As with the AFL with just four rounds to go, the top eight looks to be in a solid position, with only the final order of the teams to be determined, and a possible late challenge from Manly-Warringah to try and crash the finals party.

Three teams are still a chance to be crowned as minor premiers, with the possible repeat of last season where the Roosters won the title on for-and-against. Brisbane play Dragons at home, Roosters away, Rabbitohs away and Melbourne at home. North Queensland play Rabbitohs at home, Warriors away, Melbourne away and Gold Coast at home. Roosters play Parramatta at home, Brisbane at home, Manly away and Rabbitohs at home. None of those draws are easy, and it is hard to see any of those three teams winning all four games to ensure a minor premiership. The Roosters have the far superior percentage, but are a game behind the two Queensland teams, but also have three of those games at home. Home ground advantage for the finals goes to the top two teams, with the real possibility season front runners Brisbane could be squeezed out over the closing rounds. or perhaps that is just wishful thinking.

The final spot in the top four should go to the Rabbitohs, but it isn't a foregone conclusion. Rabbitohs play North Queensland away, Bulldogs at home, Brisbane at home and Roosters away. Cronulla play Melbourne at home, Tigers at home, Parramatta away and Manly at home. Melbourne play Cronulla away, Knights at home, North Queensland at home and Brisbane away. If percentage comes into play, then the Storm will slip in by the skin of their teeth. If Cronulla can best Melbourne this weekend, they then have the Tigers and the Eels following that, which may well play into their hands perfectly.

To make the final eight, Manly would have to win all four of their final games against Canberra (away), Parramatta (home), Roosters (home) and Cronulla (away), which is not an impossible task but a tough one. At this stage you would expect both the Dragons and Bulldogs to win three of their last four to cement their spots. Dragons play Brisbane (away), Penrith (home), Gold Coast (away) and Wests Tigers (home), while Bulldogs take on Gold Coast (home), Rabbitohs (away), Newcastle (away) and Warriors (home). Manly's best chance is for the Dragons to drop two of those games (a possibility) and for themselves to win three of their last four, with a high boost in their for-and-against (a possibility).

As for the rest... start looking at 2016.

So Few Wins Needed for Finals Spot

With five rounds remaining of the NRL before the finals begin (apart from tomorrow night's non-event between the Titans and the Eels), it once again appears that at least one of the teams that finishes inside the top eight will have lost more games than they have won in the regular season.

It is conceivable that three of those teams in the top eight will have less than a 50% win record and yet still get the opportunity to play finals football. I have a real problem with that. I just don't see that if you can't win a majority of your games over 26 rounds, that you should have the chance to win a premiership if you happen to win four finals in a row. And no, that hasn't happened yet, but Canterbury went close to doing it last year from seventh position, after having 13 wins from 24 matches. And no, it isn't a likely event in any case, but would you ever rule out a team such as Melbourne or Canterbury, currently 6th and 8th respectively, being able to do it?
There is no way of course that Channel 9 will allow the top 8 finals to change. It offers three extra finals matches than the old top five used to, which is all dollars and ratings they would be unwilling to lose. I guess the quality of the games will still be a deciding factor in the future, and the finals in the first week between 5 vs 8 and 6 vs 7 are generally the best of the first week.

Rugby league and the @NRL continues to be an absolute farce. A laughing stock. A joke. Good luck supporters #NRLRaidersSharks

— Bill Peters (@westkiama) July 18, 2015

Footy Tipping Blues

It has probably come to the stage that I should start doing my George Costanza impersonations, and start doing the 'opposite' when it comes to my weekly footy tips.
Once again this weekend I have managed to get 3 out of 8, and that in itself was still fortunate. Who was going to pick Manly to beat Melbourne in Melbourne, or Canberra to beat Souths. Really. What a joke.

Starting to slip back badly now. Perhaps the week off for the Test and Country Origin matches will be the revitalising effect that is needed...

MJ Rowles Footy Tipping Comp
		R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOTAL
Gail	$	5	4	4	6	3	4	4	4	34
Pig	$	4	6	4	5	3	4	4	4	34
Chris R	$	5	5	7	3	3	3	5	2	33
Dean	$	4	5	7	3	2	6	3	3	33
Drew	$	4	4	5	6	4	4	3	3	33
Mitch	$	3	3	6	4	5	4	4	4	33
Chris B	$	5	2	4	3	5	5	5	4	33
Damien	$	3	4	6	4	4	2	6	4	33
Phil	$	5	5	4	3	2	5	6	2	32
Terry	$	5	4	6	2	2	6	4	3	32
Dan	$	6	3	5	2	5	2	5	4	32
Jamie		3	5	3	3	4	5	3	6	32
Tyler	$	4	3	5	2	4	4	4	6	32
Chrissy	$	5	3	7	5	2	3	5	1	31
Zac		4	4	5	2	4	4	2	6	31
Bill	$	3	7	5	3	3	4	2	3	30
Matt K		5	4	5	2	5	1	2	6	30
Ben		2	4	6	4	3	5	3	2	29
Matt B		5	5	4	2	2	5	3	3	29
Taylor	$	3	5	4	2	2	6	4	3	29
Kenny	$	6	3	4	3	2	1	4	3	26
Shane	$	5	4	3	1	4	2	4	3	26

When "Picked on Form" is Used Very Loosely

It has been a long time since I have cared about international rugby league, or watched it with any real passion. Most of that stems from the fact that the majority of this is now played in October after the season has ended, and the cricket has begun. The other reason is that we see better games in club NRL in this day and age than anything that is played at this representative level. Also, when was the last time you saw an Australia team chosen that you actually believed was the best that could be picked?

Case in point this afternoon. The Australian team is chosen for the Test against New Zealand next Friday night. So how do we go? Well, Billy Slater hasn't played for five weeks, but he's straight in. It looks like every winger in Australia is injured or not considered, because Josh Dugan gets a run there, as does Alex Johnston. Wow. And let's thrown Will Chambers into the centres with Greg Inglis shall we?
Now. How is the form in the pack? Sam Thaiday? Wow. How about the bench? Luke Lewis? Nate Myles? James Tamou? Really? Where is the form that is apparently being shown by these guys? Tamou had a great game on Saturday against the Knights, but where has he been before that? How are Cherry-Evans and Jennings in as back ups? They have been average at BEST this season.

It's a joke. The selectors have picked players that are big and mobile and hoping they will stand up when they take the field on Friday night. In reality, the only way Australia can win is if the usual quartet of Smith, Cronk, Thurston and Slater do all the work.
Good luck.

Team

1 Billy Slater (Melbourne Storm)
2 Alex Johnston (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
3 Greg Inglis (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
4 Will Chambers (Melbourne Storm)
5 Josh Dugan (St George Illawarra Dragons)
6 Jonathan Thurston (North Queensland Cowboys)
7 Cooper Cronk (Melbourne Storm)
8 Matthew Scott (North Queensland Cowboys)
9 Cameron Smith (c, Melbourne Storm)
10 Aaron Woods (Wests Tigers)
11 Greg Bird (Gold Coast Titans)
12 Sam Thaiday (Brisbane Broncos)
13 Corey Parker (Brisbane Broncos)

14 Luke Lewis (Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks)
15 Trent Merrin (St George Illawarra Dragons)
16 Nate Myles (Gold Coast Titans)
17 James Tamou (North Queensland Cowboys)

18th man: Daly Cherry-Evans (Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles)
19th man: Michael Jennings (Sydney Roosters)
20th man: Josh Papalii (Canberra Raiders)

The Only Way to Watch Footy

A few weeks ago at the Glen Fowler fundraiser, Kevin and I ended up winning one of the silent auctions (with some help from Helen hovering around the bid sheet), which included a signed and framed Dragons guernsey, along with two tickets to sit in a box at WIN Stadium for the next home game against the Panthers. $600 was the final cost, which in order to hold onto the memorabilia we split $450/$150. A win/win I would think.

The box was in the Southern Stand, and right behind the goalposts, so it was a superb view. When Kev and I arrived there was half a dozen 19 and 20 year olds, and us. Soon enough the fridge was unlocked, the beef and condiments was unleashed, and we were off. It was great. we parked ourselves on the chairs in front of the glass, and whiled the afternoon away, conversing with the others who used the box, and successfully emptying the fridge's contents before lock up, half an hour after the game concluded. Pity the game was so very average, as the panthers ground out a low scoring victory. But when it comes to watching the footy, there couldn't be a much better way to do it.

"King" Arthur Returns to Seek Eels' Holy Grail

Parramatta have today finally decided on a coach to replace the departure of the fallen idol with the feet of clay Ricky Stuart. But, in a way that only Parramatta can supply, they managed to completely stuff up the process once again, and create a media clown show for all to see.

Having interviewed a number of candidates (though not the candidacy of Eels legends Ray Price and Brett Kenny who mooted interest in the position), the board's vote was split as to which former fill-in coach of the Eels, Jason Taylor and Brad Arthur, should get the gig as a full time coach. Then, apparently at the last minute, Jason Taylor withdrew his candidacy when he could not be guaranteed everything that he felt he needed in order to do the job. Thus, it was Brad Arthur, who had the reigns for the final six matches of the 2012 season after Stephen Kearney was sacked and before Ricky Stuart was appointed, who had been named as the coach for the next three seasons. If he gets that far, he will be the first Parramatta coach since Brian Smith to last longer than two seasons.

So what does that leave ahead for Parramatta fans? Following the Miracle of 2009 the Eels could not produce a similar finish in 2010 and missed the finals, and have since finished 15th, 16th and 16th. The fans proclaimed the arrival of Stuart, and supported his blunt appraisal that things would get worse before they got better, but he promised a revival. He told up to 17 players halfway through the season that they were surplus to requirement for 2014, by posting their names on the wall in front of all their teammates, but the fans supported him. Through it all, the fans took on Stuart's philosophy, wearing the jibes of all other Club's supporters in the belief of a better future. And then the man who put it all into place decided it was too hard, and jumped on the first available ship to Canberra.

In Brad Arthur the Eels have a man who is popular amongst those that have survived the 12 months since he moved to Manly to become an assistant. They have some new blood coming in who will hopefully add starch to the defense and bite to the attack. No doubt the fans will, once again, be asked to be patient, and allow the new coach to settle in and put his stamp on the playing group. That's all and good, but since Brian Smith was sacked in 2006, they have had Jason Taylor for a few games, before similar comments and guarantees were offered by Michael Hagan (2007-08), Daniel Anderson (2009-10) and Stephen Kearney (2011-12).
To be honest, the player recruitment and retention at Parramatta has been disgraceful for over a decade, and perhaps this is the first place Arthur should start to clean out the place. They need to keep their good kids, find some experience to put around them, and stick with them for a couple of seasons and let them find their feet. Only then can the Eels begin their slow crawl from the basement to once again be a challenger for a finals position.

NRL 2013 Down to Four Teams in May

It's only round 10 in the 2013 NRL season, and already the competition is down to just four teams. Oh, I'm sure Newcastle fans will have you believe they are contenders, and even Cowboys, Brisbane and Cronulla fans will push their case for inclusion. Bulldogs fans will come out howling that they are on their way back to make it two Grand Finals in a row. But they're wrong and kidding themselves. Twelve clubs are already planning for next season, or positioning themselves in that way.

No, in 2013 only the Storm, the Sea Eagles, the Rabbitohs and the Roosters are in contention for this season's title. They have been the stand-out teams so far, and look like the winners. This was highlighted by the great drawn game on Monday night between Manly and Melbourne. Both teams showed their best, and they couldn't be seperated after 90 minutes.
Of course, the Origin series is almost upon us, an eight week period that will likely include a number of players from each of these Clubs - although Souths may well get away with a very small representation, which will be to their benefit.