Action Not Words Key in Ashes Victory Push

Cricket starts again tomorrow, with a re-match between England and Australia for the Ashes just three months after the previous contest was decided by an emphatic 3-0 margin in England. Strangely enough though, with all the pre-match talk going around, you would think Australia are the favourites. The Poms have said very little, while everyone from Dave Warner to Shane Watson to Ryan Harris to Nathan Lyon and Brad Haddin have been having their two bob worth.
One can only assume that the Australian media are trying to convince themselves that Australia has the upper hand in the upcoming battle for the Ashes, given all of the talk in recent days over the form of Australia's selected squad, and the supposed lack of time the English squad has had on the field with the poor weather in both Hobart and Sydney in the lead up to the 1st Test. Then there is Australia's record at the venue for the 1st Test, the 'Gabba, where Australia has not lost a Test since the end of the great West Indies era back in 1988/89. There are 'injury concerns' for Kevin Pietersen and Matt Prior. Australia's walking crock, Shane Watson though, is 'fit to bowl when required' after a very ginger-looking six deliveries in the nets. Mitchell Johnson, who has rarely troubled the English batting, is being proclaimed as the savior.
Like I said, I think they're only trying to con themselves.

England will, in all sensible people's minds, start as raging favourite for the Test and the series, and with good reason. They have won the last three Ashes series, by margins of 2-1 (England 2009), 3-1 (Australia 2010-11) and 3-0 (England 2013). Australia had their chances to win the first two series, but were never really close in England this past winter. England will field almost an exact replica of that team, and Australia's team hasn't improved on paper since the 5th Test just a couple of months ago. Despite the fact that Australia now take on their opponents on home turf, there would have to be a huge reversal for the series to go to the Australians.

Points to consider:

• James Anderson and Stuart Broad will enjoy bowling on the much friendlier wickets in Australia than those that their own curators dished up for them in the home series. They'll be bouncier and quicker, just what they will enjoy. Chris Tremlett, the likely third seamer, also bowled well out here three years ago, and will enjoy the chance to nail down a spot once again. If Tim Bresnan regains fitness, he will also be dangerous. The extra bounce of the Australian wickets will also help Graham Swann, even if he doesn't get as much turn. All in all, England's bowling could well be more dangerous here than they were at home.
• In England, both Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott averaged less than 30, and Kevin Pietersen averaged less than 40. The likelihood of that occurring two series in succession is very low. While England's batting line up now looks less daunting than it did six months ago, that could change around very quickly, given their efforts here in 2010/11. Australia's depleted bowling stocks may also be cause for their batting's resurrection.
• Major questions still surround Australia's batting. Can Warner batter Anderson and Broad like he has lesser bowlers on smaller grounds this summer? Can Rogers continue his resurgence? Watson has still only scored one century in three years, and he needs to produce more. Bailey has averaged 21 in first class cricket over the past two years - can he really transfer ODI form to Test cricket? Can Smith become the Test batsman he wants to be? Will Clarke's back get through the series? Most of this seems to have been ignored by the media, but they are the most pressing questions of all for the outcome of this series.
• Can Harris, Siddle, Johnson and Faulkner do the job? And if they can't, is there anyone left standing who can?! It is fortunate Australia has had some bowling depth, or the chance were that Glenn McGrath and Brett Lee would have been recalled from the commentary box. However, if any of them is injured, or are just unable to break through the English batting, is there anyone in Shield cricket who can do better? Our guys need to be aggressive and be backed up by our fieldsmen.
• Is Nathan Lyon the spin answer? Do even the selectors think so? Every spin bowler in Australia apart from myself has had their name mentioned as a possible starter in this series. Ashton Agar. Fawad Ahmed. Jon Holland. Steven O'Keefe. Adam Zampa. Cameron Boyce. Nathan Hauritz. They've all been mentioned. Is there even a chance than Lyon will be given a fair shot? Every spinner since 2007 has been compared to Shane Warne, and the second they are unable to win a Test match for Australia, they get given the flick and they move on to the next candidate. If he can continue to pick up four or five wickets a Test then he should be allowed to do his job. Personally, I would be very surprised in Fawad Ahmed is not playing on Boxing Day.
• One of the major problems facing both teams is that the best umpires available will not be used in this series. It is an unusual situation, in that 8 of the 12 umpires on the International panel are either English or Australian, and are therefore ruled ineligible. After the disastrous umpiring in the last series, one would have thought that the ECB and CA could have gotten their heads together and agreed to use these umpires. Perhaps they could have used one Australian and one English umpire, but truly, would anyone have argued if Ian Gould, Nigel Llong, Richard Kettleborough or Richard Illingworth had been appointed? English umpires have, almost without question, been the best in the world. Surely it would have been a better series with those gentlemen installed to look after the Tests.

With rain forecast on most days, you would have to expect that a draw is the likely result for the 1st Test. The big question in that not being the case will be Australia's batting. In England, Australia only managed to post more than 300 on two occasions, and only twice on the tour of India earlier in the year. You can't win Tests doing that. If England's seam attack can exploit any sideways movement that the 'Gabba may have to offer, then a result is probable.

We can only hope that Australia's 'perhapsers' can find that odd time when they fire, and put it all together in this series. If each player performs at their best then Australia can win this series. If they perform as they have been for the last 12 months, then England will more than likely retain the Urn for another couple of years.